江西科学2024，Vol.42Issue(2)：303-310,416,9.DOI:10.13990/j.issn1001-3679.2024.02.014
基于PLUS-MarKov预测模型的赣州市"三生"空间耦合协调时空演变研究
Research on the Spatial Coupling Harmonious Degree Spatial-Spatial Evolution of "Production-Living-Ecological Space" in Ganzhou Based on PLUS-MarKov Prediction Model
摘要
Abstract
The research of spatial-temporal change and coupling harmonious degree of regional"Production-Living-Ecological space"through land use change has important reference signifi-cance for the sustainable development of the region.This paper uses the PLUS-Markov model to simulate and predict the land use situation in 2030 based on the land use data of 2000,2010 and 2020,and introduces the coupling harmonious degree model to study and analyze the spatial-tempo-ral change of the coordination degree of"Production-Living-Ecological"spatial development in Ganzhou city.At the same time,we carry out a longitudinal analysis of the change trend,and a hor-izontal analysis and comparison of 18 counties and urban areas.The simulation shows that between 2000 and 2030 the total score of production function will increase by 1.04%,the total score of life function will increase by 155.46%,the total score of ecological function will decrease by 1.43%.The coupling harmonious degree change of 2000-2030 shows that the overall coordination degree of Ganzhou city was in a state of serious imbalance,but the proportion of areas with severe imbalance gradually decreased over time,and the proportion of areas with high coordination degree rapidly in-creased after 2010.Among the 18 counties and urban areas,Zhanggong district and Nankang dis-trict have significantly better coordination degree than other areas of Ganzhou city,while Dingnan county and Chongyi county are relatively backward.The characteristics of high forest land coverage in Ganzhou means that its ecological spatial distribution is wide and its ecological function is strong,but the expansion of construction land during the study period did not lead to the imbalance of the coordinated development,on the contrary,promoted its good coordinated development.关键词
"三生"空间/耦合协调度/PLUS模型/土地利用模拟/赣州市Key words
"Production-Living-Ecological" space/coupling harmonious degree/PLUS prediction model/land use simulation/Ganzhou city分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
钟羿,汤江龙,朱健计..基于PLUS-MarKov预测模型的赣州市"三生"空间耦合协调时空演变研究[J].江西科学,2024,42(2):303-310,416,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41961032). （41961032）
