"21.7"河南暴雨的集合敏感性分析OA北大核心CSTPCD

The"21.7"extreme rainstorm in Zhengzhou,Henan Province,was a severe meteorological disaster that has occurred in China in recent years.The numerical models show significant uncertainty in this rainfall event,and there are deviations in the forecast of rainfall areas and intensity.Currently,the formation mechanism of the"21.7"Henan rainstorm has been widely studied,but research on its ensemble sensitivity analysis is very limited.Ensemble sensitivity analysis is a method that utilizes ensemble forecasts to estimate the sensitivity of model forecasts to initial conditions.It diagnoses the influencing factors of extreme weather processes and analyze the uncertainty of ensemble forecasts.Therefore,this study focuses on the individual case of the"21.7"Henan rainstorm,using the WRF-ARW model,combined with ensemble initial conditions,multi-physics,and model perturbations to construct serveral regional model ensemble forecasts.Ensemble sensitivity analysis is used to assess the predictability of the"21.7"Henan rainstorm and analyze the factors influencing this rainfall.The results show that the"21.7"Henan rainstorm is sensitive to the temperature field,humidity field,wind field,and geopotential height field perturbations of the initial conditions.Enhancing the cyclonic circulation in the Zhengzhou area,changing the temperature over Zhengzhou,reducing the air pressure in the Zhengzhou area,or strengthening the intensity of Typhoon In-Fa can enhance the precipitation intensity of this rainfall.This study improves understanding of the causes of the"21.7"Henan rainstorm and enhance ensemble forecasts.