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首页|期刊导航|南京大学学报(自然科学版)|模拟启动时间和双台风对"21.7"河南极端暴雨事件的影响研究

模拟启动时间和双台风对"21.7"河南极端暴雨事件的影响研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Study on the impacts of simulation start time and binary typhoons on the"21.7"Henan extreme rainfall event

中文摘要英文摘要

对发生在2021年7月18日至21日的河南极端暴雨事件("21.7"河南暴雨)进行集合模拟数值试验,旨在探究模拟启动时间以及台风"烟花"和"查帕卡"对此次暴雨事件的影响.不同模拟启动时间的试验组分析表明,在降水峰值发生前24 h启动的一组试验能够最准确地模拟双台风的路径和强度演变特征,其再现了"21.7"河南暴雨中心位置、强度及时间演变特征,这主要是由于该试验很好地再现了低层东南风急流及其动力辐合特征,基于此最优试验移除台风环流后,副热带高压西伸南压且水汽输送路径随之发生调整.通过定量分析降水关键区的整层水汽通量发现,在降水最大峰值出现的时段内,台风"烟花"和"查帕卡"分别削弱了东南风和偏南风的水汽输送,表明台风的存在对降水的影响存在不确定性,某些时段内反而减缓了河南地区的极端降水.

This study utilized the WRF model to conduct ensemble experiments on the Henan record-breaking rainfall event that occurred from July 18th to 21st,2021("21.7"Henan rainfall event),aiming to explore the impact of the simulation start time and typhoons"In-fa"and"Cempaka"on this precipitation event.Analysis of different experimental groups with varying simulated initial times showed that the experiment initiated 24 hours before the peak precipitation occurred could most accurately simulate the path and intensity evolution characteristics of the two typhoons,as well as reproduce the center position,intensity,and temporal evolution characteristics of the"21.7"Henan rainfall event.This is mainly because this experiment well reproduced the low-level southeasterly jet and its dynamic convergence characteristics.Based on this optimal experiment,after removing the typhoon circulation,the subtropical high extended westward and southward,with the water vapor transport path adjusting accordingly.Through quantitative analysis of the vertically integrated water vapor transport in the key precipitation area,it was found that during the time period when the maximum peak of precipitation occurred,typhoons"In-fa"and"Cempaka"weakened the water vapor transport of southeasterly and southerly flows,indicating that the existence of the two typhoons had an uncertain impact on precipitation,and in certain periods,they even reduced the extreme precipitation in Henan region.

张心怡;张熠;刘昊炎;王其伟;王迪

中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京大学大气科学学院,南京,210093自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室,河海大学海洋学院,南京,210098中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,河南省气象台,郑州,450003

大气科学

"21.7"河南暴雨水汽输送台风"烟花"(2021)模拟启动时间

"21.7"Henan rainfall eventwater vapor transporttyphoon"In-fa"(2021)simulation start time

《南京大学学报(自然科学版)》 2024 (002)

194-208 / 15

国家自然科学基金(42192555,41775057)

10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2024.02.002

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