|国家科技期刊平台
首页|期刊导航|南京大学学报(自然科学版)|超强台风"舒力基"(2021)的尺度可预报性

超强台风"舒力基"(2021)的尺度可预报性OA北大核心CSTPCD

On the size predictability of Super Typhoon Surigae(2021)

中文摘要英文摘要

台风尺度表征了台风低层风场特定风速半径大小,是台风灾害影响范围的重要度量.针对超强台风"舒力基"(2021),对其尺度可预报性进行初步探讨.结果表明,模式可以模拟出台风发展初期台风尺度(内核尺度RMW、外围尺度R17)的演变趋势.基于集合预报的模拟试验,具体分析了内核尺度RMW、外围尺度R17演变及其误差增长特征.台风预报总体误差主要出现在对流层下层850 hPa,距离台风中心50~150 km.从初始环境场看,初始相对湿度是影响台风尺度误差增长的重要因子,初始高湿环境有利于台风发展阶段的台风尺度高离散度,从而限制了台风尺度的可预报性.在一定程度上,外围风圈半径的可预报性要高于内核风圈半径.

The typhoon size represents the specific wind speed radius of the typhoon,and is an important measure of the impact scope of the disaster.This study conducts a preliminary discussion on the scale predictability of Super Typhoon Surigae(2021).The results show that the numerical model simulates the evolution of typhoon scales,including the inner-core size(RMW),outer-core size(R17)in the early stages of typhoon development.Based on the simulation experiments of ensemble forecasts,the evolution of inner-core size RMW and outer-core size R17 and their error growth characteristics are specifically analyzed.The overall errors in typhoon forecast mainly occurs at 850 hPa in the lower troposphere,50 to 150 km away from the typhoon center.From the perspective of the initial environmental field,the initial relative humidity is an important factor affecting the growth of typhoon size errors,and then to limit the predictability of typhoon size.The initial high humidity environment is conducive to the high dispersion of typhoon outer-core size in the typhoon development stage.To a certain extent,the predictability of the outer wind circle radius is higher than that of the inner-core wind circle radius.

黄雨婧;谈哲敏

中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京大学大气科学学院,南京,210023

大气科学

台风内核尺度外围尺度可预报性环境湿度

typhooninner-core sizeouter-core sizepredictabilityenvironmental humidity

《南京大学学报(自然科学版)》 2024 (002)

218-229 / 12

国家自然科学基金(42192555)

10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2024.02.004

评论