超强台风"舒力基"(2021)的尺度可预报性OA北大核心CSTPCD

The typhoon size represents the specific wind speed radius of the typhoon,and is an important measure of the impact scope of the disaster.This study conducts a preliminary discussion on the scale predictability of Super Typhoon Surigae(2021).The results show that the numerical model simulates the evolution of typhoon scales,including the inner-core size(RMW),outer-core size(R17)in the early stages of typhoon development.Based on the simulation experiments of ensemble forecasts,the evolution of inner-core size RMW and outer-core size R17 and their error growth characteristics are specifically analyzed.The overall errors in typhoon forecast mainly occurs at 850 hPa in the lower troposphere,50 to 150 km away from the typhoon center.From the perspective of the initial environmental field,the initial relative humidity is an important factor affecting the growth of typhoon size errors,and then to limit the predictability of typhoon size.The initial high humidity environment is conducive to the high dispersion of typhoon outer-core size in the typhoon development stage.To a certain extent,the predictability of the outer wind circle radius is higher than that of the inner-core wind circle radius.