台风结构与强度以及环境场对西北太平洋台风尺度估计的影响研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

The radial wind profile of tropical cyclones(TCs)is essential in both estimating the TC disaster and conducting TC research.This article assessed six radial wind profile models widely used internationally based on empirical parameters and physical processes,utilizing the best track dataset from 2001 to 2020 in the Western North Pacific(WNP),which was released by Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC).This study not only evaluated the estimation accuracy of the TC outer-core size(R17),but also discussed the impact of internal factors such as structure and intensity(Vmax)as well as environmental factors such as vertical wind shear(VWS)and translation speed(SPD)on the model accuracy.It was found that all the models overestimated R17 for smaller TCs and underestimated larger TCs,and the smaller(or larger)the TCs,the more obvious the overestimation(or underestimation)was.Overall,the model proposed by Willoughby,based on empirical parameters,showed the least variance and the strongest correlation with observation.The study also found that the impact of inner-core size of TCs(the Radial of Max Wind,RMW)and intensity on different models are significantly different.Furthermore,under conditions of high VWS and SPD,the estimated bias of models increased significantly with the increase of these two factors.The research provides a reference for further improving the model,so that it can be applied to TCs with different environmental conditions,different structures and intensity.