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首页|期刊导航|南京大学学报(自然科学版)|台风结构与强度以及环境场对西北太平洋台风尺度估计的影响研究

台风结构与强度以及环境场对西北太平洋台风尺度估计的影响研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

The impact of typhoon structure,intensity,and environmental factors on the estimation of typhoon size in the Northwest Pacific

中文摘要英文摘要

台风风场径向廓线模型对台风灾害的评估以及台风尺度的研究具有重要的价值.利用西北太平洋2001-2020年的台风最佳路径观测数据,评估了目前国际上应用比较广泛的六个分别基于经验参数和物理过程的台风风场径向廓线模型对台风尺度(台风大风半径,R17)的估计精度,并探讨了台风结构、强度等内部因素以及垂直风切变和移动速度等环境因子对模型精度的影响.评估发现,所有模型均高估了 R17较小的台风而低估了 R17较大的台风,且R17越小,高估越明显,R17越大,低估越严重.总体而言,Willoughby et al发展的基于参数的模型具有最小的估计偏差且与观测记录之间最高的相关性.研究还发现,台风内核尺度(最大风速半径,RMW)和强度(最大地面风速,Vmax)对不同模型的影响具有显著的差异性.此外,在高环境风切变和高移速条件下,模型的估计偏差的量级会显著增加.以上研究为进一步完善适用于不同环境条件下,不同结构与强度台风的风场模型提供参考.

The radial wind profile of tropical cyclones(TCs)is essential in both estimating the TC disaster and conducting TC research.This article assessed six radial wind profile models widely used internationally based on empirical parameters and physical processes,utilizing the best track dataset from 2001 to 2020 in the Western North Pacific(WNP),which was released by Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC).This study not only evaluated the estimation accuracy of the TC outer-core size(R17),but also discussed the impact of internal factors such as structure and intensity(Vmax)as well as environmental factors such as vertical wind shear(VWS)and translation speed(SPD)on the model accuracy.It was found that all the models overestimated R17 for smaller TCs and underestimated larger TCs,and the smaller(or larger)the TCs,the more obvious the overestimation(or underestimation)was.Overall,the model proposed by Willoughby,based on empirical parameters,showed the least variance and the strongest correlation with observation.The study also found that the impact of inner-core size of TCs(the Radial of Max Wind,RMW)and intensity on different models are significantly different.Furthermore,under conditions of high VWS and SPD,the estimated bias of models increased significantly with the increase of these two factors.The research provides a reference for further improving the model,so that it can be applied to TCs with different environmental conditions,different structures and intensity.

李好雨;储可宽

中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京大学大气科学学院,南京,210023

大气科学

台风尺度台风风场径向廓线模型垂直风切变台风移速

typhoon sizeradial wind profile modelvertical wind shearTC translation speed

《南京大学学报(自然科学版)》 2024 (002)

244-256 / 13

国家自然科学基金(42192553)

10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2024.02.006

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