南京大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.60Issue(2)：301-316,16.DOI:10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2024.02.011
基于CMIP6模式对青藏高原平均降水的模拟评估与预估
CMIP6 evaluation and projection of precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
摘要
Abstract
Precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)has a significant impact on regional climate and water cycling.Understanding the impact of global warming on the trend of precipitation over the QXP is crucially important.This article assesses the simulation results of 20 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models with the gridded observations for the period of 1995-2014 to evaluate the performance of CMIP6 models in simulating precipitation over the QXP.The results indicate that the CMIP6 models reasonably capture the spatial distributions of precipitation on the QXP,which decrease from the southeast to the northwest,but the model simulations still suffer from wet bias,the mean precipitation bias is 1.3 mm·d-1.And there is a large model spread of simulated winter precipitation,the standard deviation is larger than 3 mm·d-1.Under the scenario of the Shared Socio-economic Pathway SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5,future projections of precipitation in the mid-term(2045-2065)and long term(2081-2100)based on the ensemble of 20 models(AMME)and the ensemble of 5 optimal models(BMME)show that the future precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is expected to increase,with larger increases under SSP5-8.5 than under SSP2-4.5,and larger increases in long term than mid-term.Spatially,the mid-term precipitation changes align with the long-term,with most areas showing increases in year-and seasonal-averaged precipitation,except for the southern portion of the region in winter and fall,and the eastern portion of the region in summer,which show decreases in precipitation.Notably,BMME projections tend to be higher magnitudes of increase in both annual and seasonal precipitation compared to the AMME.In future scenarios,the increase of annual precipitation is predominantly attributable to the increase of springtime rainfall.关键词
CMIP6模式/青藏高原/平均降水/模式评估/预估Key words
CMIP6/Qinghai-Xizang Plateau/precipitation/model evaluation/projection分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
季玉枝,杨小玲,周波涛,徐昕,王元..基于CMIP6模式对青藏高原平均降水的模拟评估与预估[J].南京大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,60(2):301-316,16.基金项目
科技部国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3007502),国家自然科学基金(42122036) （2023YFC3007502）
