人民长江2024，Vol.55Issue(4)：169-177,9.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.04.022
岩溶隧洞突涌水灾害风险评价研究
Research on risk assessment of water inrush disaster of karst tunnels
摘要
Abstract
Affected by complex geological conditions,karst tunnels are prone to suffer sudden water inrush disasters during con-struction.To accurately assess the risk level of water inrush in karst tunnels,the structural equation model(SEM)was combined with the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method(FCEM)to construct a risk assessment model for water inrush in karst tunnels.In-depth research was conducted from 6 aspects:topography,meteorological hydrology,stratigraphic factors,geological structures,karst hydrogeology,and construction factors.SEM was used to determine the standardized path coefficients of each indi-cator and obtain their weights,and the improved FCEM method was used to determine the risk level of water inrush in karst tun-nels.Taking the Kuncheng Tunnel of the Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project as an example,the validity of the model was ver-ified by Crystal Ball.The results showed that the Kuncheng Tunnel was within the score range of 52 to73(level Ⅲ risk)with a probability of 90%,which was consistent with the actual situation on site.It showed that the risk assessment model of water inrush in karst tunnels based on the SEM-improved FCEM method had certain applicability.Karst hydrogeology,geological structure,and meteorological hydrology were the main influencing factors of the tunnels.Monitoring and measurement of these aspects should be strengthened during construction to avoid water inrush disasters.The research results can provide a reference for similar karst tunnel projects.关键词
岩溶隧洞/突涌水/结构方程模型(SEM)/改进模糊综合评价法(FCEM)/蒙特卡洛模拟/昆呈隧洞/滇中引水工程Key words
karst tunnel/water inrush/structural equation model(SEM)/improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method(FCEM)/Monte Carlo simulation/Kuncheng Tunnel/Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
江新,陈婧,赵力,张腾飞,邱国坤,李骏骁..岩溶隧洞突涌水灾害风险评价研究[J].人民长江,2024,55(4):169-177,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52179136) （52179136）
