山区河流典型桥梁船撞概率分析模型比较OACSTPCD

The probability of ship-bridge collision is a complex study of multi-disciplinary cross-integration and multi-factor influence.At present,the probability of ship-bridge collision calculated by beam bridge and arch bridge in mountain rivers is not the same when selecting the standard model.The existing ship collision probability models and applicable conditions are different,so the AASHTO specification model,LARSEN model and three probability parameter integral model are used necessarily to analyze the probability and law of ship collision with typical bridges in mountainous rivers.By analyzed the annual impact probability of wading piers of continuous rigid frame bridge and deck arch bridge under the highest and lowest navigable water levels and the influence of water level change on the annual impact probability,the model applicability of bridge and arch bridge in mountainous rivers was obtained.The result shows that the annual impact probability under the three standard models increases with the increase of traffic volume.The AASHTO model and the three probability parameter model have similar trends in the probability calculation results of the beam bridge.For arch bridges,the three-probability parameter integral model is more sensitive to the changes of the transverse and longitudinal positions of the arch bridge,and is more suitable for arch bridges with large water level changes in mountainous areas.The reference for the selection of ship collision probability model for different bridge types can be provided by the result of this paper.