生态学报2024，Vol.44Issue(7)：3027-3037,11.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202302200280
落叶松枯梢病在中国的适生性
Prediction of potential suitable distribution of shoot blight of larch(Neofusicoccum laricinum)in China
摘要
Abstract
Shoot blight of larch caused by Neofusicoccum laricinum(Sawada)Hattori&Nakash is a serious disease and exerts a significant impact on the production of larch plantation in China.It is of great significance to carry out the prediction of potentially suitable area and risk analysis of the disease,so as to take timely and effective control measures for the disease,and finally reduce the risk level and prevent the disease spreading.This study was conducted to investigate the environmental variables affecting the distribution of shoot blight of larch and the geographical distribution under current and future climate conditions.Based on 63 distribution points of shoot blight of larch and 10 environmental factors,the distribution of potentially suitable areas of shoot blight of larch in China in different spans of modern(1970-2000),the 2030s,2050s,2070s,and 2090s scenarios was predicted using a combination of the MaxEnt model,SDMTools and ArcGIS software.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)value was used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model.The results showed that:(1)the average AUC values in different years and climates of the predicted result of MaxEnt model were more than 0.9,indicating that the MaxEnt model is accurate and suitable for predicting the potential distribution of shoot blight of larch in China.(2)The major environmental variables affecting the distribution shoot blight of larch in China included:annual mean temperature,precipitation of warmest quarter,mean temperature of warmest quarte,and annual precipitation.The cumulative contribution of the main environmental factors was 59.1%.(3)Under the near climatic model,the total suitable area of potential was approximately 1.728 million km2,covering 18.02%of the total land area of China.The areas surrounding the southeastern Liaoning,eastern Jinlin,most of Heilongjiang and Northeastern the Inner Mongolia were moderately and highly suitable areas for shoot blight of larch.(4)The potentially suitable areas of shoot blight of larch under the three climatic scenarios(ssp126,ssp245,ssp585)of the 2030s,2050s,2070s,2090s will shrink to varying degrees.The prediction results showed that centroid movement track of the suitable area of shoot blight of larch would be within the Inner Mongolia,and there would be a trend of moving to Southwest and North China.The results showed that the shoot blight of larch had the risk of invasion and spread in China,which will bring irreversible ecological disaster.Therefore,it is essential to reasonably delineate the potentially dangerous invasion sites for the disease,strengthen relevant detection and quarantine in key areas,and develop the effective control measures in a timely manner to eliminate the possibility of invasion at source.关键词
落叶松枯梢病/最大熵模型/潜在适生区/气候变化Key words
Neofusicoccum laricinum/suitable areas/MaxEnt model/climate change引用本文复制引用
张秀芸,伍文慧,梁英梅..落叶松枯梢病在中国的适生性[J].生态学报,2024,44(7):3027-3037,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1400300) （2021YFD1400300）
