中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）2024，Vol.40Issue(2)：19-28,10.DOI:10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2024.02.0003
中国进口天然气运输脆弱性分析
Vulnerability Analysis of Imported Natural Gas Transportation in China
摘要
Abstract
With the promotion of the"dual carbon"strategy,China's demand for natural gas is steadily increasing,leading to a gradu-al rise in its reliance on foreign sources.In order to ensure the stable supply of imported natural gas in China,it is extremely necessary to conduct vulnerability analysis on its transportation.Based on the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram,a vulnerability assessment index system is established encompassing three dimensions:exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability.The enhanced calculation equation is constructed utilizing the SERV model to quantitatively analyze the vulnerability of China's imported natural gas transportation,while a factor contribution model is developed to identify the key influencing factors.And the following research results are obtained.Firstly,the vulnerability of China's imported natural gas transportation has roughly gone through four stages:rapid growth,slight decline,mar-ginal increase,and fluctuating decline.Secondly,the three dimensions of vulnerability exhibit different trends over time.Thirdly,there are 10 indicators identified from the index system that have a great impact on the transportation vulnerability of China's imported natural gas.In conclusion,to reduce the vulnerability of China's imported natural gas transportation,it is imperative to bolster pipeline network infrastructure and make good shipping route planning.Additionally,expediting the development of gas storage and peak regula-tion facilities is crucial.Furthermore,deepening cooperation and optimizing the source composition of natural gas imports are essential steps.Lastly,accelerate the transformation of energy structure and improve the ability to cope with international price fluctuations.关键词
进口天然气/脆弱性/VSD评估框架/SERV模型/因子贡献度Key words
imported natural gas/vulnerability/VSD evaluation framework/SERV model/factor contribution degree分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李宏勋,赵颖,周紫璐..中国进口天然气运输脆弱性分析[J].中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）,2024,40(2):19-28,10.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY078) （20BJY078）
山东省社会科学规划数字山东研究专项(20CSDJ69) （20CSDJ69）
