气候变化下3种冬青属植物的适生区预测OA北大核心CSTPCD

Based on existing species records and environmental variables,the MaxEnt model was used to pre-dict the past,present and future potential suitable areas for Ilex macrocarpa,I.micrococca and I.rotunda.The results showed that the minimum temperature in the coldest month,average range of daily temperature and soil type were the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of the 3 species of Ilex.The suitable area of I.macrocarpa will decrease by 30.27％from present to 2070;the suitable area of I.micrococca will decrease by 8.59％from present to 2070;the suitable area of I.rotunda will decrease by about 6.43％from present and 2070.In the future,the distribution of I.macrocarpa and I.micrococca will expand to the north,but there is no obvious expansion of I.rotunda.Overall,global climate change has led to the reduction of the suitable areas for the 3 spe-cies of Ilex,and effective management strategies are needed to cope with this change.