陕西省略阳县乌鸡场鸡白痢群流行率估计和风险因素探索OA

In order to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of pullorum disease(PD)on black-bone chicken farms in Lueyang County,Shaanxi Province,the population prevalence of the disease was investigated on intensive farms across the county from May to November 2021,and a prediction model of the disease was established to analyze possible risk factors.The results showed that the apparent population prevalence and the true one were 65.9%and 64.2%(95%CI:49.5%-78.9%),respectively.The main risk factors for PD occurrence included"visitors entered"(OR = 15.435,(95%CI:2.187-108.927),P＜0.05)and"antibiotics applied all year round"(OR = 12.078,(95%CI:1.397-104.434),P＜0.05);Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)test showed that,P value was above 0.05,the lower area of ROC curve was 0.82(95%CI:0.69-0.95),and the R-squared of the prediction model was good with fair predictive performance.In conclusion,the population prevalence of PD in chicken farms in Lueyang County was relatively high with high-risk factors.It was thus recommended to strictly make efforts on production management and bio-safety prevention and control,improve bio-safety awareness of operators,and to prevent or treat the disease using appropriate antimicrobial drugs according to the characteristics of infection on the infected farm.