中国动物检疫2024，Vol.41Issue(4)：16-21,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-944X.2024.04.004
陕西省略阳县乌鸡场鸡白痢群流行率估计和风险因素探索
Population Prevalence Estimation and Risk Factors Exploration of Pullorum Disease on Black-bone Chicken Farms in Lueyang County of Shaanxi Province
师清博 1王新卫 2陈新忠 3邓蒲媛 1何勇君 4熊伟曼 1刘阳 1李韬 1李艳明 1张智鹏1
作者信息
- 1. 汉中市动物疫病预防控制中心,陕西汉中 723000
- 2. 河南农业大学动物医学院,河南郑州 450002
- 3. 略阳县畜牧兽医技术推广中心,陕西略阳 724300
- 4. 城固县老庄镇农业综合服务站,陕西城固 723200
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In order to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of pullorum disease(PD)on black-bone chicken farms in Lueyang County,Shaanxi Province,the population prevalence of the disease was investigated on intensive farms across the county from May to November 2021,and a prediction model of the disease was established to analyze possible risk factors.The results showed that the apparent population prevalence and the true one were 65.9%and 64.2%(95%CI:49.5%-78.9%),respectively.The main risk factors for PD occurrence included"visitors entered"(OR = 15.435,(95%CI:2.187-108.927),P＜0.05)and"antibiotics applied all year round"(OR = 12.078,(95%CI:1.397-104.434),P＜0.05);Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)test showed that,P value was above 0.05,the lower area of ROC curve was 0.82(95%CI:0.69-0.95),and the R-squared of the prediction model was good with fair predictive performance.In conclusion,the population prevalence of PD in chicken farms in Lueyang County was relatively high with high-risk factors.It was thus recommended to strictly make efforts on production management and bio-safety prevention and control,improve bio-safety awareness of operators,and to prevent or treat the disease using appropriate antimicrobial drugs according to the characteristics of infection on the infected farm.关键词
鸡白痢/群流行率/风险因素/陕西省Key words
PD/population prevalence/risk factor/Shaanxi Province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
师清博,王新卫,陈新忠,邓蒲媛,何勇君,熊伟曼,刘阳,李韬,李艳明,张智鹏..陕西省略阳县乌鸡场鸡白痢群流行率估计和风险因素探索[J].中国动物检疫,2024,41(4):16-21,6.
