灾害学2024，Vol.39Issue(2)：34-41,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2024.02.006
基于系统动力学的村镇基础设施安全韧性仿真研究
Simulation of Village Infrastructure Safety Resilience Based on System Dynamics
摘要
Abstract
Compared with cities,villages have lower levels of infrastructure construction and disaster resist-ance.Clarifying the relationship between disaster risks and the villages infrastructure safety resilience,and evalua-ting villages infrastructure safety resilience to respond to disasters,is beneficial for the planning and construction of villages.The system dynamics method is used to establish a simulation model for villages infrastructure safety resili-ence,and on the basis of determining the weight of the model variables,the villages infrastructure safety resilience is simulated.Taking Dawang Street in Xixian New Area as an example,four development scenarios are set up,in-cluding status quo continuation,economic development,government intervention,and safety resilience construc-tion,to simulate the dynamic changes of villages infrastructure safety resilience from 2019 to 2030.The results show that it is expected that by 2030,the level of infrastructure safety resilience in the government intervention scenario will reach 0.779,which is the highest among the four development scenarios mentioned above.It is rec-ommended that the development plan of government intervention could be adjusted and improved of Dawang street based on the existing plan.The results can provide theoretical and scientific basis for the development planning of other villages.关键词
村镇基础设施/安全韧性/系统动力学/仿真模拟Key words
village infrastructure/safety resilience/system dynamics/simulation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
田卫,胡澳香,马睿浩,高明哲,陈雅斌..基于系统动力学的村镇基础设施安全韧性仿真研究[J].灾害学,2024,39(2):34-41,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"绿色节能导向的旧工业建筑功能转型机理研究"(51678479) （51678479）
校企合作项目"西咸新区村镇建筑群安全韧性评价及提升方法研究"(20230259) （20230259）
