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基于petri网的森林火灾应急救援流程网络模型及时效研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Network Model and Timeliness Research on Petri Net-based Forest Fire Emergency Rescue Process

中文摘要英文摘要

为了对森林火灾的应急救援流程进行优化,以提升应急救援效率,依据森林火灾应急救援预案、有关规定与实际救援案例,从信息传递的角度对森林火灾应急救援流程进行了直观描述.基于petri网相关理论,运用PIPEv5.2.0,构建了森林火灾应急救援随机petri网模型与其同构马尔可夫链,在模型有界、活性、安全且可达的基础上,通过确定模型的库所繁忙率、变迁利用率、平均延迟时间,得到如下结果:①森林火灾应急救援活动早期的灾情信息多且复杂,随着森林火灾的发展呈现动态变化,火灾发生后如何高效地获取过火面积、火线长度、风向、风力、植被载量以及地形等关键信息是优化的重点.②避免信息堆积,基于火灾规模、强度、形式、火头方向等重要任务信息变量,实现实时快速决策、动态处置,是保证森林火灾应急救援活动的时效性的关键.

In order to optimize the emergency rescue process for forest fires and improve emergency rescue ef-ficiency,a visual description of the forest fire emergency rescue process is provided from the perspective of infor-mation transmission based on the forest fire emergency rescue plan,relevant regulations、and actual rescue ca-ses.Based on the theory of Petri Nets,a stochastic petri net model of forest fire emergency rescue and its isomor-phic Markov chain are constructed by using PIPEv5.2.0.Based on which the model is bounded,active,safe and accessible.and by determining the model's place occupancy rate,transition utilization rate and average delay time,it was found that:① The early disaster information of forest fire emergency rescue activities is abundant and com-plex,and it shows dynamic changes with the development of forest fires.How to efficiently obtain key information such as fired area and perimeter、wind direction、wind scale,forest fuel loads and terrain is the focus of optimi-zation.② Avoiding information accumulation,realizing real-time rapid decision-making and dynamic disposal based on important task information variables such as fire scale,intensity,form and flame direction are the keys to ensure the timeliness of forest fire emergency rescue activities.

徐毓蔓;张以晨;张继权;丁立全

长春工程学院吉林应急管理学院,吉林长春 130103东北师范大学环境学院,吉林长春 130024武警吉林省森林总队白山市支队,吉林长春 130000

环境科学

森林火灾救援随机petri网模型时效分析

forest fire emergency rescuea stochastic petri net modeltimeliness analysis

《灾害学》 2024 (002)

42-47 / 6

吉林省科技发展计划项目"长白山北景区地质灾害链式效应及精细化风险预警技术研究"(212556SF010483432)

10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2024.02.007

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