基于灾害演化网络的泥石流风险评估方法研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Aiming to perform risk assessment of debris flow hazard evolution and quantitative identification of key nodes accurately、and by incorporating with stochastic process,a risk assessment model is constructed based on the hazard evolution network.By constructing a disaster evolution network to analyze the evolution law of disaster chain and the influence degree of disaster nodes and introducing probabilistic random distribution,the probability of occurrence of disaster-causing nodes and the likelihood of disaster nodes are described.Besides,the probability of occurrence of disaster-causing nodes,the degree of influence and the possibility of occurrence of disaster nodes are coupled to identify the key nodes of disaster network evolution.After applying it to the debris flow in Banzi catchment,Wenchuan County,Sichuan Province,the results show that stopping the debris flow from invading the residents'gathering place and reducing the traffic obstruction and rescue obstruction are the key points of risk con-trol in the debris flow disaster evolution in Banzi catchment,which is in line with the situation of the actual rescue site.Therefore,the results of the study can provide certain theoretical support for more effective debris flow disaster emergency rescue.