灾害学2024，Vol.39Issue(2)：92-98,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2024.02.015
基于CMIP6模式数据的京津冀山区未来极端降水频率的变化
Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Frequency in the Mountainous Regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Based on CMIP6 Data
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data of multiple global climate models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercompari-son Project(CMIP6)after bias correction,3h precipitation data under three climate change scenarios are selected to explore the space-time distribution of the frequency value of extreme precipitation and its relative change rate in the future.The results show that:The corrected model had little difference between simulated precipitation and ob-served data,and could well simulate the space-time distribution changes of future precipitation.Compared with the history,the frequency of water decline in different scenarios of multiple models increases significantly in the fu-ture,and extreme precipitation increases、and the growth rate of scenarios in more than half of the models is 0％-15％.The precipitation frequency in zone I is the highest,up to 162.53mm,and the growth rate is about 37％at the most.The precipitation frequencies in Zone Ⅱ and Zone Ⅳ are close to each other,while the precipitation frequency in Zone Ⅲ changes slowly.Spatially,the growth rate of the western,southwestern and northeastern re-gions of the study area is relatively large.关键词
CMIP6/3h短历时降水/极端降水频率变化/山洪灾害/京津冀山区Key words
CMIP6/3h short-duration precipitation/changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation/flash floods/the mountainous regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
王洁,蒿萌,葛慧,梁峰铭,林诚杰,季静静,谈松林,解文娟,刘淼..基于CMIP6模式数据的京津冀山区未来极端降水频率的变化[J].灾害学,2024,39(2):92-98,7.基金项目
河北省省级科技计划资助项目(19275408D) （19275408D）
江苏省水利科技项目(2020040) （2020040）
国家自然科学基金项目(41877158) （41877158）
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX23_1375) （KYCX23_1375）
