灾害学2024，Vol.39Issue(2)：119-124,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2024.02.019
深度不确定性下的沿海城市洪涝风险稳健决策:方法、原理与展望
Robust Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty for Coastal City Flood Risk:Approaches,Principals and Prospects
摘要
Abstract
In the context of global climate warming and rising sea levels,the frequency and intensity of ex-treme flood events in coastal cities are significantly increasing.This escalation in flood hazard poses a substantial challenge to the safety and development of coastal cities.The application of Decision Making under Deep Uncertain-ty(DMDU)approaches,grounded in the concept of formulating long-term robust decision strategies addressing,has gained widespread usage in global coastal city flood risk management.Three core categories of DMDU approa-ches:robust decision-making,adaptive pathways,and option value assessment are taken into comparison.The main principals are analyzed based on uncertainty,robustness,and adaptiveness,and a generic framework of DMDU robust-decision approaches is proposed.Finally,a perspective on the practical application of DMDU in the field of coastal city flood risk management,including robustness in relation to decision objectives,policy environ-ment and decision participation,and the integration and innovation of approaches is offered.The objective is to pro-vide insights into robust decision-making for coastal cities to effectively address climate change challenges.关键词
深度不确定性/洪涝灾害/风险管理/沿海城市/稳健决策Key words
deep uncertainty/flood hazard/risk management/coastal cities/robust decision-making分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
胡恒智,温家洪,赵路娜..深度不确定性下的沿海城市洪涝风险稳健决策:方法、原理与展望[J].灾害学,2024,39(2):119-124,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"沿海城市极端风暴洪水动态风险情景分析—以上海为例"(42171080) （42171080）
