气象研究与应用2024，Vol.45Issue(1)：17-22,6.DOI:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.1.04
CMA-WSP2.0在江苏地表太阳辐射预报中的检验评估
Validation and evaluation of CMA-WSP2.0 in surface solar radiation forecasting in Jiangsu
摘要
Abstract
Based on the total radiation observation data of Nanjing,Huai'an,and Lvsi stations in Jiangsu Province from June to December 2023,the surface solar radiation products of the China Meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Forecasting System(CMA-WSP2.0)were examined and evaluated.The results are as follows:(1)CMA-WSP2.0 performs well in overall forecasting of the surface solar radiation at Nanjing,Huai'an and Lvsi stations within three days.The correlation coefficients between the forecast and observation values for these three stations on the first day are 0.85,0.87 and 0.86 for 15 min intervals respectively.As the forecasting time increases,the correlation gradually decreases;(2)as for Huai'an Station,the forecast effect from October to December is significantly better than that from June to September,indicating that the forecast effect in autumn and winter seasons are significantly higher than that in summer.The forecast effect in November is the highest,with an accuracy of 92.2%,while in July,the forecast effect is the worst,only 66.6%,which is related to the frequent heavy rainfall processes and complex weather changes during the rainy season;(3)From the perspective of daily changes,the predictive performance of CMA-WSP2.0 is relatively low during the period of 11:00-15:00,especially in July.Next,multiple methods will be explored to revise and optimize the CMA-WSP2.0 forecast products in order to improve its applicability.关键词
CMA-WSP2.0/地表太阳辐射/检验评估/准确率Key words
CMA-WSP2.0/surface solar radiation/validation and evaluation/accuracy分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
张敏,袁心仪,张顾,王博妮,孙明,黄亮,陈正洪,葛行成,周雪城..CMA-WSP2.0在江苏地表太阳辐射预报中的检验评估[J].气象研究与应用,2024,45(1):17-22,6.基金项目
江苏省气象局青年基金项目(KQ202210、KQ202310) （KQ202210、KQ202310）
