老年医学与保健2024，Vol.30Issue(2)：304-309,6.
老年慢性心力衰竭住院患者中重度心力衰竭发生风险预测模型的构建
Construction of a risk prediction model for moderate to severe heart failure in elderly inpatients with chronic heart failure
姚娴凤 1笃铭丽 1李红莉 2丁梦云1
作者信息
- 1. 上海市第一人民医院护理部,上海 200080
- 2. 上海市第一人民医院老年医学科,上海 200080
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct a risk prediction model for moderate to severe heart failure in patients with chronic heart failure(CHF)based on electronic medical records,and verify the predictive effect of the model.Methods A total of 299 patients diagnosed with CHF in cardiovascular clinical medical center of a grade Ⅲ-A hospital in Shanghai from January 2019 to December 2020 were selected as the research subjects.Logistic regression was used to establish the risk prediction mod-el for moderate to severe heart failure in CHF patients.Hosmer-Lemeshow and receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)were used to test the goodness of fit and prediction effect of the model,respectively.A total of 100 patients were enrolled to verify the model.Results Cardiac ultrasound(reduced motion amplitude)(OR = 5.109),edema of both lower limbs(OR =3.947),atrial fibrillation(OR =2.772),and elevated serum creatinine(OR =1.015)were risk factorsfor moderate to severe heart failure in patients with CHF,while elevated serum albumin(OR =0.939)was a protective factor.Hosmer-Leme-show test showed that P =0.127,the area under the ROC curve was0.858,the Youden index was0.528,the optimal critical value was 0.805,the sensitivity was 0.731,the specificity was 0.797,and the accuracy of practical application was 77.00%.Conclusion The predictive model established in this study for the risk of moderate to severe heart failure in CHF patients ex-hibits good predictive performance,which is beneficial for the early identification of the risk of moderate to severe heart failure in the future,and provides a basis for updating the electronic system alarm program.关键词
电子病历/慢性心力衰竭/中重度/风险预测模型/护理Key words
electronic medical record/chronic heart failure/moderate to severe/risk prediction model/nursing引用本文复制引用
姚娴凤,笃铭丽,李红莉,丁梦云..老年慢性心力衰竭住院患者中重度心力衰竭发生风险预测模型的构建[J].老年医学与保健,2024,30(2):304-309,6.
