护理学报2024，Vol.31Issue(8)：63-68,6.DOI:10.16460/j.issn1008-9969.2024.08.063
食管癌术后静脉血栓栓塞症风险预测模型的构建及验证
Construction and verification of risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism after esophageal cancer surgery
摘要
Abstract
Purpose To construct a venous thromboembolism(VTE)risk prediction model for postoperative patients with esophageal cancer.Methods Convenience sampling was used to select 220 patients who underwent esophageal cancer surgery in a tertiary grade-A hospital from January 2020 to April 2022 as the modeling group,with 60 in the VTE group and 160 in the non-VTE group.Logistic regression analysis was used to establish the VTE risk prediction model,which was validated by a separate validation group.Results Risk factors for postoperative VTE in patients with esophageal cancer included age≥60 years,comorbidities,neoadjuvant chemotherapy(NACT),operative duration,postoperative use of prothrombin complex concentrates(PCC),and postoperative D-D at 12 hours.The model showed good predictive accuracy.In the modeling group,HL test showed P=0.250,area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)was 0.766,the best cutoff value was 0.445,the sensitivity was 0.783,the specificity was 0.662.In the validation group,AUC was 0.738,the sensitivity was 0.682,the specificity was 0.769,the prediction accuracy was 80%.Conclusion The prediction model has demonstrated good predictive performance and can provide reference for assessing VTE risk in postoperative patients with esophageal cancer.关键词
食管癌/静脉血栓栓塞症/风险预测/影响因素/列线图Key words
esophageal cancer/venous thromboembolism/risk prediction/influencing factor/nomogram分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
曹娟,李方,于跃,戴丽,杨丹丹,李志华,徐欣怡,戴琪,陈柯宇..食管癌术后静脉血栓栓塞症风险预测模型的构建及验证[J].护理学报,2024,31(8):63-68,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(81902453) （81902453）
江苏省人民医院临床能力提升工程项目(JSPH-NC-2021-22) （JSPH-NC-2021-22）
