中国电机工程学报2024，Vol.44Issue(8)：2965-2977,中插3,14.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.230121
基于多保真度模型的高比例新能源配电网潮流不确定性表征方法
Uncertainty Representation Method of Power Flow in Distribution Network With High Percentage of Renewable Energy Based on the Multi-fidelity Model
摘要
Abstract
In the context of the decarbonization transition of energy production and consumption,it is important to quantify the impacts of source-load uncertainty and realize the uncertainty representation of power flow efficiently and accurately for the safe and reliable operation of the distribution network.This paper classifies the existing uncertainty representation methods into two categories including high and low fidelity models based on their computational efficiency and accuracy,and comprehensively analyzes the disadvantages of both methods.On this basis,an uncertainty representation method of power flow in distribution network with high percentage of renewable energy based on the multi-fidelity model is proposed to achieve high-precision estimation of the statistical moment of the power flow status variables and depict the probability distribution function.In terms of statistical moment estimation,an optimal input sample allocation method combining the characteristics of high and low fidelity models is proposed to achieve unbiased estimation of the statistical moment of output variable with a given computational budget.In terms of probability distribution function fitting,a method based on the comprehensive startup function is proposed to improve the accuracy of the fitting result by using the prior information provided by the multi-fidelity model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by simulation calculations of 118-node distribution network.关键词
不确定性表征/概率潮流/多保真度模型/统计矩/概率分布函数Key words
uncertainty representation/probabilistic power flow/multi-fidelity model/statistical moment/probability distribution function分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
胡喆,王晗,严正,徐潇源,陈玥,许少伦..基于多保真度模型的高比例新能源配电网潮流不确定性表征方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2024,44(8):2965-2977,中插3,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52107116,U2166201) （52107116,U2166201）
澳门特别行政区科学技术发展基金(SKL-IOTSC(UM)-2024-2026) （SKL-IOTSC(UM）
智慧城市物联网国家重点实验室(澳门大学)开放课题(SKL-IoTSC(UM)-2024-2026/ORP/GA03/2023) Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(52107116,U2166201) （澳门大学）
the Science and Technology Development Fund(SKL-IOTSC(UM)-2024-2026)and the State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City(University of Macau)(SKL-IoTSC(UM)-2024-2026/ORP/GA03/2023) （SKL-IOTSC(UM）
