中国资源综合利用2024，Vol.42Issue(4)：183-189,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1008-9500.2024.04.050
基于STIRPAT模型的广东省碳排放峰值预测分析
Prediction and Analysis of Carbon Emission Peaks in Guangdong Province Based on STIRPAT Model
摘要
Abstract
In order to effectively reduce carbon emissions and respond to climate change,China plans to achieve carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.Guangdong province is the largest province in China's economy,and predicting and analyzing its future carbon emissions is of great significance for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality.This paper fully considers the impact of various factors on carbon emissions,constructs a STIRPAT model,uses data from 1998 to 2019 as samples for ridge regression,and obtains the carbon emission prediction equation for Guangdong province,and sets three scenarios by using scenario analysis method.The results indicate that Guangdong province is unable to achieve the carbon peak target before 2030 under the baseline scenario,but can successfully achieve this goal under the low-carbon scenario and strengthened low-carbon scenario.关键词
碳排放/峰值预测/碳达峰/碳中和/STIRPAT模型/情景分析/广东省Key words
carbon emissions/peak prediction/carbon peak/carbon neutrality/STIRPAT model/scenario analysis/Guangdong province分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
张烜,刘国东,叶意晶,肖羽炜..基于STIRPAT模型的广东省碳排放峰值预测分析[J].中国资源综合利用,2024,42(4):183-189,7.基金项目
2022佛山科学技术学院学生学术基金资助项目(xsjj202214zsa01). （xsjj202214zsa01）
