中国中医药信息杂志2024，Vol.31Issue(5)：131-137,7.DOI:10.19879/j.cnki.1005-5304.202303379
IgA肾病病证结合预后风险预测模型的构建及评价
Construction and Evaluation of A Prognosis Risk Prediction Model of IgA Nephropathy with Syndrome Combination
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the risk factors affecting the prognosis of IgA nephropathy patients;To construct and evaluate the prognosis risk prediction model of IgA nephropathy patients.Methods From October 2017 to October 2022,the clinical data of 452 patients with IgA nephropathy diagnosed by renal biopsy in the Department of Nephrology,Beijing Changping District Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine were collected.Through the collection of clinical data,laboratory indicators,pathological indicators,and TCM syndromes,based on the doubling of the initial SCr compared with the baseline level or the reduction of the initial eGFR by more than 50%compared with the baseline,or entering the ESRD period as the combined endpoint event indicators,the risk factors affecting the prognosis of IgA nephropathy were screened.Cox univariate and multivariate regression analysis were used to screen for risk factors affecting the prognosis of IgA nephropathy.A nomogram model was constructed using R 4.1.1 to evaluate the predictive level and discrimination of the model.Results According to the results of multivariate Cox regression analysis,5 predictive factors were finally included:24 h urine protein quantification,TA-UP,New Oxford Pathological Classification T score,New Oxford Pathological Classification C score,deficiency of both qi and yin.A prognostic risk prediction model was established based on the above predictive factors,and the results showed that the consistency index was 0.810(95%CI:0.673-0.815,P<0.001).The calibration curve showed a good fit of the model;the area under the ROC curve for 3 years was 0.757(95%CI:0.739-0.823),indicating that the prediction probability of the model was good.Conclusion The nomogram model of IgA nephropathy based on TCM syndrome can predict the prognosis risk of IgA nephropathy patients more accurately,and can provide a reference for clinical prediction of IgA nephropathy risk.关键词
IgA肾病/危险因素/预后模型/中医证候Key words
IgA nephropathy/risk factors/prognostic model/TCM syndrome分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
史彬,司远..IgA肾病病证结合预后风险预测模型的构建及评价[J].中国中医药信息杂志,2024,31(5):131-137,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2019YFC17085-03) （2019YFC17085-03）
