昆明市应急避难场所的空间分布特征及其分异成因OACSTPCD
Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Emergency Shelters in Kunming and Its Differentiation Causes
应急避难场所是城市防灾能力建设的重要内容,通过对昆明市14个县市区应急避难所进行数据采集与整合,分别从人口、社会、经济、地震动参数四个维度选取7个变量,以空间分异性视角出发,采用地理探测器方法对应急避难所数量面积的空间分布差异及影响因子关系进行分析.结果表明:GDP、应急避难所数量、人口规模、人口密度、地震动峰值加速度、公共预算支出和防震减灾机构独立性都是影响应急避难场所面积分布的因素,因子的显著程度依次是GDP、应急避难所数量、人口密度、人口规模、地震动峰值加速度、公共预算支出和防震减灾机构独立性;交互因子探测分析结果显示,7个影响因素的两两交互作用均大于单个因素的作用,说明昆明市应急避难场所面积的空间分布是多种因素共同作用的结果.GDP、人口规模和人口密度结合避难场所数量的交互作用最强,说明经济水平、应急避难所数量和人口密度是影响应急避难场所面积的最重要驱动因素.昆明市应急避难场所面积与其人口规模尚不匹配,未来应急避难场所面积达标最重要的途径是尽快提高当地的经济发展水平.
The construction of emergency shelters is important for evaluating urban disaster prevention capabilities.By collecting and integrating data on emergency shelters in 14 counties and prefectures of Kunming City,seven variables are selected from four dimensions of population,social,economic and seismic parameters.From the perspective of spatial differentiation,the geographical detector method is adopted for analyzing the spatial distribution differences in the number and area of emergency shelters and the relationships between influencing factors.The results show that GDP,the number of emergency shelters,population size,population density,peak ground acceleration(PGA),public budget expenditure and the independence of earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation institutions serve as the seven influencing factors for the area distribution of emergency shelters,with the greatest significance of GDP,followed by the number of emergency shelters,population density,population size,PGA,public budget expenditure and the independence of earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation institutions in sequence.According to the detection analysis of interaction factors,the interaction effect between any two of these seven influencing factors is greater than the effect of a single factor,indicating that the spatial distribution of emergency shelter area in Kunming is the result of multiple factors.The strongest interaction between GDP,population size,population density,and the number of shelters indicates that GDP,the number of emergency shelters and population density are the most important influencing factors for the area of emergency shelters.Since the emergency shelter area in Kunming is not yet proportional to its population,the most important way to meet the standard of emergency shelter area in the future is to improve the level of local economic development as soon as possible.
白仙富;戴雨芡
中国地震局昆明地震预报研究所,昆明 650224昆明市西山区防震减灾局,昆明 650000
土木建筑
应急避难场所空间分异性影响因素地理探测器
Emergency shelterSpatial heterogeneityInfluencing factorGeographical detector
《华南地震》 2024 (001)
32-42 / 11
地震科技星火计划攻关项目(XH22005C、XH23003C);云南省重点研发计划(202203AC100003);云南省科技人才与平台计划(202405AC350051);云南省地震科技创新团队(CXTD202406)共同资助.
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