岩土力学2024，Vol.45Issue(5)：1505-1516,12.DOI:10.16285/j.rsm.2023.0914
中国南海神狐海域水合物储层井壁稳定可靠度分析
Reliability analysis of wellbore stability for hydrate reservoirs in Shenhu area of the South China Sea
摘要
Abstract
Natural gas hydrates have significant economic and environmental potential,and their exploitation and utilization are of strategic significance for national energy security and realizing"dual carbon goals"of peak carbon and carbon neutrality.The majority of hydrates in China is distributed in the South China Sea.The complexity and concealment of the marine environment result in highly uncertainty of engineering measurement data,which affects drilling safety.However,there is a lack of reliability analysis for wellbore stability in hydrate reservoirs.Based on the analytical model of wellbore stability in hydrate reservoirs and the specific geological conditions of the Shenhu area in the South China Sea,the reliability analysis methods including the advanced first-order second-moment method and the response surface method are employed to quantitatively assess the probability of wellbore instability during drilling,and to analyze the sensitivity of the wellbore instability probability and safe drilling fluid pressure window to the mean and uncertainty of the main parameters.The research results indicate that:(1)If the measurement data are accurate enough,the drilling in hydrate reservoirs in the Shenhu area of the South China Sea is highly safe and the safe drilling fluid pressure window is also large.However,the increased uncertainty of measurement data can significantly increase the probability of wellbore instability and narrow the safe drilling fluid pressure window.(2)A lower drilling fluid temperature can slightly reduce the probability of wellbore instability and significantly increase the safe drilling fluid pressure window.(3)The mean and uncertainty of the five main parameters have the same order of influence on the probability of wellbore instability,that is:initial in situ stress＞initial internal friction angle＞elastic modulus ratio＞initial cohesion＞initial elastic modulus.Accurate measurement of initial in situ stress in practical engineering can significantly improve the wellbore stability in hydrate reservoirs.关键词
天然气水合物/井壁稳定性/可靠度/南海神狐海域/响应面法/改进一次二阶矩法Key words
natural gas hydrate/wellbore stability/reliability/Shenhu area in the South China Sea/response surface method/advanced first order second moment method分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
黄佳佳,蒋明镜,王华宁..中国南海神狐海域水合物储层井壁稳定可靠度分析[J].岩土力学,2024,45(5):1505-1516,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(No.12272274,No.51890911) （No.12272274,No.51890911）
同济大学土木工程防灾国家重点实验室自主课题(No.SLDRCE19-A-06) （No.SLDRCE19-A-06）
海南省重点研发计划项目(No.ZDYF2021SHFZ264) （No.ZDYF2021SHFZ264）
中国工程科技发展战略海南研究院重大咨询研究项目(No.21-HN-ZD-02-5).This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12272274,51890911),the State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering,Tongji University(SLDRCE19-A-06),Hainan Province Science and Technology Special Fund(ZDYF2021SHFZ264)and Hainan Research Institute of China Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy(21-HN-ZD-02-5). （No.21-HN-ZD-02-5）
