融合历史溃坝数据的水库大坝溃坝风险演化机制研究OA
Study on the risk evolution mechanism of dam failure combined with historical dam failure statistics
随着水库大坝管理水平提升及除险加固工作的推进,我国已进入世界低溃坝率国家行列,然而在全球气候变化的背景下,大坝出险甚至溃坝事故仍时有发生.从统计分析、案例研究、文本挖掘等3个方面围绕我国溃坝风险展开了研究,主要研究成果包括:基于我国1954年以来的溃坝历史数据,分析了溃坝主要成因及时空分布特征;通过文本挖掘等手段提出了土石坝溃坝风险事件关联度分析方法及灾害链演化概率计算方法;提出了适用于溃坝风险分析的贝叶斯模型构建方法,并基于系统动力学理论建立了改进的贝叶斯模型,进一步提出了土石坝溃坝路径推断方法.研究成果对进一步提升我国水库大坝风险管理水平、加强防灾减灾体系建设具有借鉴意义.
With the improvement of dam management level and the promotion of reinforcement work,China has entered the ranks of countries with low dam break rate in the world.However,under the background of global climate change,dam accidents and even dam failures still occur from time to time.The risk of dam failure in China is studied from three aspects:statistical analysis,case study and text mining.The main research results include:based on the historical data since 1954,the main causes and the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of dam failure are analyzed;the calculation method of correlation degree of dam failure risk events and disaster chain evolution probability are put forward though text mining method,a Bayesian model construction method suitable for dam failure risk analysis is proposed and an improved Bayesian model is established based on system dynamics theory.The research results have reference significance for further strengthening the dam risk management level and the construction of disaster prevention and reduction system.
李宏恩;王芳;赵建国
南京水利科学研究院,210029,南京||水旱灾害防御全国重点实验室,210029,南京
水利科学
水库大坝风险分析溃坝文本挖掘
damsrisk analysisdam failuretext mining
《中国水利》 2024 (008)
40-45 / 6
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3005403);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(Y722008,Y723007);水利青年拔尖人才资助项目(Qs722003).
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