中国水利Issue(8)：40-45,6.
融合历史溃坝数据的水库大坝溃坝风险演化机制研究
Study on the risk evolution mechanism of dam failure combined with historical dam failure statistics
摘要
Abstract
With the improvement of dam management level and the promotion of reinforcement work,China has entered the ranks of countries with low dam break rate in the world.However,under the background of global climate change,dam accidents and even dam failures still occur from time to time.The risk of dam failure in China is studied from three aspects:statistical analysis,case study and text mining.The main research results include:based on the historical data since 1954,the main causes and the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of dam failure are analyzed;the calculation method of correlation degree of dam failure risk events and disaster chain evolution probability are put forward though text mining method,a Bayesian model construction method suitable for dam failure risk analysis is proposed and an improved Bayesian model is established based on system dynamics theory.The research results have reference significance for further strengthening the dam risk management level and the construction of disaster prevention and reduction system.关键词
水库大坝/风险分析/溃坝/文本挖掘Key words
dams/risk analysis/dam failure/text mining分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李宏恩,王芳,赵建国..融合历史溃坝数据的水库大坝溃坝风险演化机制研究[J].中国水利,2024,(8):40-45,6.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3005403) （2022YFC3005403）
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(Y722008,Y723007) （Y722008,Y723007）
水利青年拔尖人才资助项目(Qs722003). （Qs722003）
