我国东南沿海城市和近海海域的台风极值风速预测OA北大核心CSTPCD

Typhoons severely affect the southeast coastal region of China,and it is significant to carry out typhoon simulation and its extreme wind speed prediction to refine the evaluation of typhoon hazard in the southeast coastal cities and offshore oceans of China.A full track typhoon simulation method based on the random forest typhoon models was adopted to carry out stochastic simulation of typhoons originated in the northwest Pacific Ocean,and the reliability and applicability of the typhoon simulation method were verified by historical typhoon observations.Combining with the three-dimensional spatial parameterized typhoon wind field model,the extreme typhoon wind speeds with different return periods for nine coastal cities in southeastern China were predicted.It is found that the Generalized Extreme Value(GEV-Ⅲ)distribution could better describe the characteristics of the typhoon extreme wind speed distribution.The typhoon design wind speed results are compared with the GB 50009-2012'Load code for the design of building structures'and existing studies,which verifies the reliability of the typhoon simulation results,and it can be found that the typhoon design wind speed of low-latitude cities has not exceeded the code-recommended values,while those of high-latitude cities is slightly higher than the code value.Based on the results of typhoon full path simulation and extreme wind speed estimation,the design wind speed map in southeastern China was obtained,which visually reflects that Taiwan Island and its eastern offshore areas may suffer the greatest typhoon hazard,and the eastern part of Zhejiang Province,the region from southern Fujian Province to Guangdong Province,and the southern part of Hainan Province are also facing greater typhoon hazard risk.