兰州大学学报（医学版）2024，Vol.50Issue(3)：56-61,6.DOI:10.13885/j.issn.1000-2812.2024.013.009
2000-2030年中国胰腺炎疾病负担趋势分析与预测
Trend analysis and prediction of disease burden of pancreatitis in China,2000-2030
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the change trend of the burden of pancreatitis in China from 2000 to 2019,and predict the future trend to 2030.Methods Data related to the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis in China were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease Database.The Joinpoint model was used to calcu-late the average annual percentage change to evaluate the trend of the disease burden of pancreatitis;the age-period-cohort model used to analyze age,period and birth cohort effects on the incidence and mortality of pan-creatitis;the"BAPC"package of R software used to predict the pancreatitis incidence to 2030.Results From 2000 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatitis in China showed a downward trend.The age effects showed an increase in the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis with age.The cohort effect showed a decrease in the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis from 2000 to 2019.The period effect showed a decrease in the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis as the birth cohort progressed.In 2030,the number of cases of pancreatitis in China will continue to rise;the age-standardized incidence rate is expected to increase slightly in males and to decrease slightly in females.Conclusion The age-standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatitis in China decreased from 2000 to 2019,but the incident cases might continue to increase in the next 10 years.More attention should be paid to risk factors such as alcohol use.关键词
胰腺炎/疾病负担/发病率/死亡率/年龄—时期—队列模型Key words
pancreatitis/disease burden/incidence/death/age-period-cohort model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
黄婧磊,柴长鹏,王陈宇,李晓,李琎,申屠晨阳..2000-2030年中国胰腺炎疾病负担趋势分析与预测[J].兰州大学学报（医学版）,2024,50(3):56-61,6.基金项目
甘肃省自然科学基金资助项目(23JRRA0929) （23JRRA0929）
兰州大学第一医院院内基金资助项目(ldyyyn2019-97) （ldyyyn2019-97）
