水土保持通报2024，Vol.44Issue(1)：465-476,12.DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240019.004
黄河流域内蒙古段碳汇演变模拟及驱动因素分析
Simulating Carbon Sinks and Determining Driving Factors of Inner Mongolia Section in Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The influence of land use change patterns on the spatial distribution of carbon sinks for the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin was investigated,and the main driving factors behind the spatial distribution of carbon sinks were identified in order to provide a basis for directing ecological spatial development and for developing sink enhancement policies in the study area.[Methods]The study was conducted for the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin.InVEST-FLUS model was used to analyze changes in the carbon sink capacity during each period of the study based on land use data from 2000,2010,and 2020.The patterns of carbon stock changes were simulated in 2040 under three different scenarios(natural development,ecological conservation and agricultural priority),and identified the main driving factors behind the differences in the spatial distribution of carbon sinks with the help of geographic probes.[Results]① From 2000 to 2020,carbon storage for the Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin initially increased and then decreased,with an overall increase of 8.63 × 106 t.Subsurface biological carbon storage increased by 3.91 × 106 t and soil carbon storage increased by 2.28×106 t.② Carbon storage continued to decrease by 3.92 × 106 t for the future natural development scenario,but increased by 2.21 × 107 t for the ecological protection scenario,which was higher than for the agricultural priority scenario(4.99X 106 t).Soil carbon storage was the key factor causing the incremental difference.③ The unbalanced distributions of mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature were the main factors causing differences in the various carbon pools for the Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin.[Conclusion]Reasonable ecological protection policies are more in line with the future requirements of urban intensification and ecological high-quality development.Future attention should be given to preventing and controlling desertification,and to promoting forest and grassland construction so as to improve the regional ecological security pattern and carbon sink enhancement policies.关键词
碳汇/土地利用/InVEST模型/驱动因素/黄河流域Key words
carbon sink/land use/InVEST model/driving factors/the Yellow River basin分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
浩日娃,周瑞平,胡斯乐,呼格吉乐..黄河流域内蒙古段碳汇演变模拟及驱动因素分析[J].水土保持通报,2024,44(1):465-476,12.基金项目
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目"土地利用视角下黄河流域内蒙古段碳排放测度及减排增汇机制研究"(2023SHZR0540) （2023SHZR0540）
