水力发电学报2024，Vol.43Issue(5)：68-79,12.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20240507
基于径向基网络的堰塞体溃决峰值流量预测研究
Radial basis function model for predicting peak outflow caused by landslide dam failure
摘要
Abstract
A landslide dam is formed by natural landslide and is extremely vulnerable to dam failure due to flow scour and seepage,thereby posing a severe threat to human lives and property downstream.Rapid and accurate prediction of the peak flow rate through the breach is the most important task in the rescue work of landslide dam breaching.In previous studies,a series of landslide dam peak flow prediction models were developed based on the idea of the database-statistical regression-breaching model,but none of them took into account the effects of dam erosion characteristics or particle composition on the breaching flow.With continuous expansion of the data,it is difficult yet for these prediction models to achieve the expected results.This study is based on a database of 2060 cases of landslide dam failure in China and abroad,and takes into account the landslide dam geometrical characteristics,erosive characteristics and particle composition,through extracting seven parameters-weir height(Hd),weir width(Wd),weir volume(Vd),reservoir capacity(Vl),failure depth(Hw),average width of failure(Wb),and median particle size(d50).We classify the degree of dam erosion into five categories,and establish a peak flow prediction model of landslide dam failure that includes a factor of erosion characteristics.Then,we validate the model by selecting 120 cases with complete data from the database,and achieve a root mean square error(RMSE)of 9581 m3/s and a correlation coefficient(R2)of 0.965,with a comparison with the typical parameter models available in China and abroad.The results show that considering the landslide dam erosion characteristics and the d50 parameter improves the model significantly in predicting the peak breaching flow,and our model is satisfactory in accuracy and applicable to the peak flow predictions aimed at rescue and relief work.It would also help the routing of such outburst floods and the division of the affected areas downstream.关键词
堰塞体/冲蚀特性/溃决流量/参数模型Key words
landslide dam/erosion characteristics/outburst flow/parametric model分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
王琳,张润宇,苑鹏飞,王桑蓬..基于径向基网络的堰塞体溃决峰值流量预测研究[J].水力发电学报,2024,43(5):68-79,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52279111 （）
51909214) （）
