基于MaxEnt模型的东北地区槭树潜在地理分布OA北大核心CSTPCD

Acer L is an important component of mixed forests in Northeast China and has important ecological significance when studying the geographic distribution of Acer L.To protect germplasm resources and ensure the sustainable development of Acer,the potential distribution of Acer trees under the influence of key climatic factors was studied.Based on data from the maple field survey combined with 19 climatic factors,the MaxEnt model was applied to simulate the potential geographic distribution of the four Acer species(Acer mandshuricum Maxim,A.mono Maxim,A.ginnala Maxim,and A.pseudosieboldianum(Pax)Komarov)in Northeast China under current(1970-2000)and future(2030s,2050s)conditions.The results showed that(1)the model AUC values were>0.9,indicating that the model had a higher degree of accuracy.(2)Under the current climatic conditions,the potential distribution of Acer was primarily concentrated in the Changbai and Xiaoxing'an Mountains.A.ginnala Maxim was the most widely distributed,with a maximum area of 3.79×105 km2.The climate factor with the highest correlation with suitable area distribution was annual precipitation for A.mandshuricum Maxim,precipitation seasonality for A.mono Maxim,mean temperature of wettest quarter for A.ginnala Maxim,and precipitation of driest quarter for A.pseudosieboldianum(Pax)Komarov.(3)Under future climatic conditions,the center of the suitable area of Acer showed a tendency to migrate to high latitudes,and the potential distribution area was reduced.The migration of A.mono Maxim was the farthest to the north(338 km),and the area reduction of A.ginnala Maxim was the largest(89.1%).The main factors affecting the distribution of Acer in suitable areas are annual precipitation,seasonal precipitation,and precipitation in the driest quarter under future climatic conditions.In summary,precipitation is the main climatic condition that determines the distribution pattern of the Acer.The interaction between climate factors is a nonlinear enhancement,which shows that the interaction between precipitation and temperature factors is greater than that between precipitation factors alone,and that the key factors for Acer distribution were understood among climatic factors,and provided the potential distribution of Acer under different climatic conditions,which could provide a scientific basis for Acer management,conservation,and rational site selection.