中国电力2024，Vol.57Issue(5)：50-60,11.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309084
基于净负荷预测误差统计的电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估
Adequacy Evaluation of Power System Ramping Capability Based on Net Load Forecast Error Statistics
摘要
Abstract
In the context of rapid development of renewable energy,the power system is required to keep sufficient ramping capability for coping with the renewable generation's fluctuation and intermittence.Analyzing the supply-demand situation of the power system's ramping capability can discover the risk of insufficient ramping capability and improve the security and stability of the power system operation.This paper firstly proposes the logic and procedure for power system ramping capability adequacy evaluation,and clarifies the definitions and concepts of the netload ramping capacity,uncertainty ramping capacity,surplus ramping capability and its demand-supply ratio.And the theories and specific calculation methods for estimating the netload forecast error based on the confidence statistics and quantile regression,as well as the specific calculation methods for the above parameters,are subsequently proposed.Finally,an example analysis is carried out based on the data of forty historical operating days and four typical days in Guangdong to validate the effectiveness of the proposed adequacy evaluation method.This research indicates that the surplus ramping capability demand-supply ratio can effectively identify the ramping characteristics in different typical days and special periods,reflecting the adequacy of ramping capability in the day and minute scale;the indicators such as coverage,excess,and estimation quantity can be used to evaluate the applicability of error estimation models in different regions and scenarios,serving as a reference for model selection.关键词
爬坡能力充裕度/需供比/系统净负荷预测误差/置信数统计法/分位数回归法Key words
ramping capability adequacy/demand-supply ratio/netload forecast error/confidence statistics/quantile regression引用本文复制引用
陈中飞,赵越,蔡秋娜,张乔榆,王泽林,戴晓娟,陈雨果..基于净负荷预测误差统计的电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估[J].中国电力,2024,57(5):50-60,11.基金项目
广东省重点领域研发计划资助项目(广东省电力源网荷储智慧联动运营关键技术,2019B111109002). This work is supported by Guangdong Key Area Research Projects(Key Technologies for the Intelligent Linkage Operation of Power Source,Network,Load and Storage in Guangdong Province,No.2019B111109002). （广东省电力源网荷储智慧联动运营关键技术,2019B111109002）
