中国电力2024，Vol.57Issue(5)：61-69,9.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202306066
基于高阶马尔可夫链的纯电重卡集群负荷预测
Load Forecast of Electric Trucks Aggregation Based on Higher-order Markov Chains
摘要
Abstract
Compared with ordinary electric vehicles,electric trucks have higher charging power,larger battery capacity and more considerable dispatching potential,while their charging load presents greater randomness due to many factors such as cargo weight,logistics characteristics and driving path.To this end,this paper proposes a electric trucks aggregation load prediction method based on higher-order Markov chain considering logistics characteristics.Firstly,on the basis of considering the soft time window constraint to realize the path planning of the electric trucks,the charging time of the electric trucks is predicted by analyzing their driving characteristics to obtain the charging quantity of the electric trucks at each moment.Secondly,the charge state interval of the electric trucks is partitioned with fuzzy two-level discretization,and each large interval is further subdivided into n small intervals so as to improve the prediction accuracy.And then,after obtaining the charge state multi-step transfer probability of the electric trucks,a aggregation load prediction model is established by using high-order Markov chain to achieve more accurate load prediction.Finally,the actual electric truck data of a logistics park is used for simulation verification,and the results show that the proposed load prediction model accurately predicts the aggregation power of electric trucks and reduces the prediction error of the ordinary Markov chain method.关键词
纯电重卡/高阶马尔可夫链/负荷预测/双层离散化/物流订单约束Key words
electric truck/higher-order Markov chains/load forecasting/two-level discretization/logistics order constraints引用本文复制引用
刘航,申皓,杨勇,纪陵,余洋..基于高阶马尔可夫链的纯电重卡集群负荷预测[J].中国电力,2024,57(5):61-69,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52077078) （52077078）
国网河北省电力有限公司科技项目(支撑纯电重卡集群与电网友好互动的聚合调控关键技术研究及示范应用,kj2022-050). This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52077078),Science and Technology Project of State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.(Research and Demonstration Application of Convergence Regulation Key Technology to Support Friendly Interaction between Pure Electric Heavy Truck Cluster and Grid,No.kj2022-050). （支撑纯电重卡集群与电网友好互动的聚合调控关键技术研究及示范应用,kj2022-050）
