考虑电力行业碳排放的全国碳价预测OA北大核心CSTPCD
National Carbon Price Prediction Considering Carbon Emissions from the Power Industry
为更好预测全国碳价走势,基于带有外生变量的自回归差分移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable model,ARIMAX),分履约期和非履约期使用不同的外生变量分别构建了全国碳价预测模型.首先,基于对全国碳市场制度规则研究和交易特征分析,识别出全国碳价在非履约期主要受参与者预期的影响,在履约期碳价主要受企业履约需求驱动;其次,在模型训练方面,采用一…查看全部>>
In order to better predict the trend of national carbon prices,a national carbon price prediction model is constructed based on the autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable model(ARIMAX),using different exogenous variables during the fulfillment and non-fulfillment period.Firstly,based on research on the institutional rules of the national carbon market and analysis of trading characteristics,it is found that the national carbon price…查看全部>>
王一蓉;陈浩林;林立身;唐进
国家电网有限公司大数据中心,北京 100052国家电网有限公司大数据中心,北京 100052北京中创碳投科技有限公司,北京 100007北京中创碳投科技有限公司,北京 100007
电力行业碳排放碳配额价格预测全国碳市场ARIMAX模型
power industrycarbon emissioncarbon allowancesprice forecastnational carbon marketARIMAX model
《中国电力》 2024 (5)
79-87,9
国家电网有限公司大数据中心科技项目(SGSJ 0000KFJS2200034). This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of the Big Data Center of State Grid Corporation of China(No.SGSJ 0000KFJS2200034).
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