基于碳汇潜力的碳排放空间关联网络结构特征及影响因素OA北大核心CSSCICSTPCD

Acknowledging the carbon sink potential in carbon emission spatial associations is crucial to fostering collaborative emis-sion reduction within urban agglomerations,thereby furthering the achievement of carbon neutrality.This study focused on the urban ag-glomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and enhanced the traditional gravity model by including the carbon sink poten-tial to create a carbon emission spatial association network.Both social network analysis(SNA)and the quadratic assignment procedure(QAP)were employed to investigate the spatio-temporal properties and influencing elements of the network.The findings revealed that:① The network measures of carbon emission relations,network density,and network connectivity for the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River increased over time.However,network efficiency and network level degree declined continuously,with the latter dropping to zero after 2010,suggesting an increase in density and accessibility of the network and the existence of multi-ple overlapping spillage channels without a strict hierarchical structure.Over time,based on the carbon sink potential,the network transformed from a dual-core to a multipolar and multithreaded structure,with the diffusion effect of core cities strengthening continu-ously.Furthermore,regions with high ecological support for carbon,such as Fuzhou,Yichang,Yingtan,Shangrao,and Ji'an,displayed stronger benefit associations than spillage associations in the network.② In 2020,the network constituted four major blocks.The inter-block carbon emission spatial associations were more pronounced than the intra-block associations,signifying a strong carbon emission transfer effect between blocks.The net spillage blocks were primarily located in the periphery of the Wuhan metropolitan area,the Yichang-Jingzhou-Jingmen metropolitan area,and the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan city group,central to the network.The net benefit blocks were mostly found in the eastern part of the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake,displaying a significant carbon emission shelter effect.Broker blocks were predominantly situated in the western part of the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake,and a distinct carbon emission transfer path of'net spillage block→broker block→net benefit block'was observed,presenting a clear'gradient transfer'pattern.Bidirectional spillage blocks were primarily in the western part of the urban agglomerations,contributing to carbon emission spatial spillage in both net spillage and net benefit blocks.Over time,while the number of members in the net spillage blocks remained constant,the members in the broker blocks increased,and members in the net benefit and bidirectional spillage blocks decreased,indicating a weakening of the'carbon emission shelter'effect around Poyang Lake.③ The study also revealed that geo-graphical proximity,complementarity of economic agglomeration,land use intensity,and economic development level among cities could promote the establishment of carbon emission associations,demonstrating a distant'carbon affinity'relationship as urban divi-sion of labor and cooperation intensified.