中国碳市场下发电企业碳成本传导率及动态特征OA北大核心CSSCICSTPCD

Deepening the construction of China's national carbon market promotes the adequate pass-through of carbon costs of power generation companies to the downstream demand side,which is an essential policy focus for accelerating the comprehensive green and low-carbon transition of the economy and society.A reasonable carbon price pass-through rate can not only stimulate enterprises to re-duce emissions but also convey carbon emission costs to consumers by raising electricity prices,guiding them to save electricity,and thereby promoting the carbon reduction effect in a broader range.This study,from a micro-perspective of power generation compa-nies'operational behavior,incorporates carbon emission costs into the investment decision-making scope of power generation compa-nies.Taking into full account the heterogeneity factors of enterprises such as emission intensity,risk preference,and willingness to adopt low-carbon technologies,an agent-based carbon cost pass-through rate evaluation model was constructed.By simulating the multi-strategy selection behavior of power generation companies facing limited information,this study examined the dynamic trend of the car-bon cost pass-through rate of power generation companies in China's national carbon market from 2021 to 2030 and analyzed the im-pact of different market mechanism designs and low-carbon technologies on the carbon cost pass-through rate.The study found that:① The carbon cost pass-through rate of power generation companies presented a'slow growth-rapid rise-maintaining a high position'change feature.② Initial carbon price,market regulation coefficient,and auction proportion were all positively related to the carbon cost pass-through rate of power generation companies.Specifically,as the initial carbon price increased,the carbon cost pass-through rate became higher only in the short term,and the effect would gradually weaken in the medium and long term;the market regulation co-efficient had a threshold effect on promoting the carbon cost pass-through rate;and the increase in auction proportion would increase the marginal emission cost of enterprises,leading to an increase in the carbon cost pass-through rate.③ Low-carbon technology could alleviate the operational cost pressure of power generation companies under carbon emission constraints,effectively slowing the rise of the carbon cost pass-through rate.This study not only provides theoretical support for exploring the carbon cost pass-through problem of power generation companies but also offers practical guidelines for perfecting the mechanism design of China's national carbon market.