塔里木河流域水-耕地-粮棉系统耦合关系及影响因素分析OA北大核心CSTPCD

In the arid and ecologically sensitive Tarim River Basin,a vital hub for grain and cotton production in China,the harmonious development of water,arable land,and agricultural resources is crucial for sustainable growth.This study constructs a water-cropland-grain-cotton system model for the basin,evaluates its develop-ment index,and assesses the system's coupling coordination using a coupling coordination degree model.Fur-thermore,the Fractional Logit model was employed to identify factors influencing the system's coordinated de-velopment.The findings reveal that:(1)The development indices indicate a hierarchy of water system>water-cropland-grain-cotton system>cropland system>grain-cotton system.Post-2013,the development index of the cropland system in Aksu and Kashgar Prefetures surged,surpassing those of the combined water-cropland-grain-cotton system and the individual water system.Changes in other areas were minimal.(2)The coordination level of the basin's coupled system ranges from 0.475 to 0.680,indicating a transition from minimal to basic coordina-tion.Kashgar exhibits the highest coordination,while Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture the lowest.This in-dex,after an initial gradual increase,experienced a notable decline post-2017,particularly in the Aksu Prefecture.(3)The number of reservoirs,general public budget expenditure,and population size emerge as critical factors in-fluencing the system's coordination.An increase of one unit in these variables corresponds to a rise in the cou-pling coordination degree by 1.0%,21.0%,and 35.6%,respectively.