气候变暖背景下江西省双季早稻小满寒及高温逼熟气象灾害特征分析OACSTPCD

Based on the surface meteorological observation data from 79 weather stations in Jiangxi from 1993 to 2022,the characteristics of grain buds cold and heat-forced maturity disasters of double-cropping early rice in Jiangxi Province under climate warming were analyzed.The results showed that the grain buds cold and high-temperature forced maturity occurred on distinct extend in 80.0%and 93.3%of years during the 30 years.For time changes,the scope of grain buds cold showed a shrinking trend,and the interannual tendency rate was-0.369 stations/a(P＜0.05).The number of severe disaster stations was-0.102 stations/a(P＜0.05).The scope of heat-forced maturity showed a expanding trend.The interannual tendency rate was 0.783 stations/a(P＜0.05),and the number of severe disaster stations was 0.503 stations/a(P＜0.05).The scope of high-temperature forced maturity expended obviously during 1993～2012.The high frequency period of grain buds cold in Jiangxi was from mid-May to the early of late May,and the high frequency areas were mainly located in northwest and northeast of Jiangxi.The high frequency period of high-temperature forced maturity were from early July to mid-July,and the high frequency areas were mainly located in the area along Zhejiang-Jiangxi Railway,Jitai Basin and northern Ganzhou.