基于滑动质心法的华南地区锋面和暖区降水ECMWF模式预报性能评估OACSTPCD

Based on the sliding centroid method,the spatial rainfall location forecast performance of EC model in 24～168 h for moderate,heavy,and torrential rainfall in the front and warm areas of South China was analyzed.The results show that the ECMWF model(abbreviated as EC model)has systematical meridional and zonal devia-tion in warm-area rainfall and front rainstorm location,and the forecasted rainfall location is located west and north to the observed one.The location deviation of front moderate rain and heavy rain is dominantly meridional ones,in which cases with north rainfall deviation are more than the south one.The zonal displacement error is not clear.The meridional deviation of front and warm-area rainfall location lies in 1.0°and 1.5°,respectively.The zonal de-viation lies in 1.5°and 2.0°,respectively.The spatial rainfall location forecast performance of EC model is differ-ent with the different valid time,which is relatively stable in 24～72 h.The forecast deviation in 96～168 h increa-ses obviously.A method for correcting the spatial rainfall location is established.The deviation correction method is applied to two rainfall events in 2022,and the results show that the TS scores can be significantly improved.