人民长江2024，Vol.55Issue(5)：99-106,8.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.05.013
变化环境下赣江流域水文情势演变及归因分析
Analysis of hydrologic regime evolution and attribution in Ganjiang River Basin under changing environment
摘要
Abstract
In order to reveal the characteristics and the main driving factors of hydrologic regime evolution in the Ganjiang River Basin,based on the measured discharge and water level data from 1953 to 2020 at the Waizhou Station of the Ganjiang River Ba-sin,moving average method,Kendall rank correlation test,Spearman rank correlation test,cumulative departure test,Mann-Ken-dall test,moving rank sum test,Pettitt test and ordered cluster test were used to analyze the variation characteristics of discharge and water level at the station. Random forest model and residual analysis method were used to quantitatively evaluate the effects of human activities and climate change on the changes of discharge and water level. The results showed that:① the annual and monthly average discharge showed an insignificant increasing trend,the annual average discharge increased by 10. 5％ with a rate of 3.2 (m3·s-1)/a;the annual and monthly average water level showed a significant decreasing trend,the annual average water level decreased by14.3％ with a rate of-0.04 m/a;②1991 was the abrupt change year for the annual average discharge series at the Waizhou Station,and the discharge increased by 205 m3/s in impact period compared to that in the baseline period. The contribution of climate change and human activities to the discharge change was quantitatively analyzed,climate change accounting for 92.8％,and the increase of precipitation in the Ganjiang River Basin was the main reason for the slight increase in discharge at the Waizhou Station.③2002 was the abrupt change year for the annual average water level series at the Waizhou Station,and the water level decreased by 2. 20 m in the impact period compared to that in baseline period,and the contribution of human activ-ities to the water level change accounted for 93. 8％. Due to the impacts of water conservancy projects construction,comprehensive basin treatment and other human activities,the natural flow and sand rules of the river has been changed. The cross section of the Waizhou Station was affected by scouring and siltation changes and artificial sand mining,leading to a significant riverbed scouring from year to year. What mentioned above were the main reasons for the significant decrease of the water level at the Waizhou Sta-tion. The research results can provide a reference for water resources utilization in the basin under changing environment.关键词
水文情势演变/非一致性分析/随机森林/残差分析/气候变化/人类活动/赣江流域Key words
hydrologic regime evolution/inconsistency analysis/random forest/residual analysis/climate change/human ac-tivities/Ganjiang River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
乔时雨,李国芳,李国文,陈静,冻芳芳..变化环境下赣江流域水文情势演变及归因分析[J].人民长江,2024,55(5):99-106,8.基金项目
江西省重点研发计划项目(20212BBG71014) （20212BBG71014）
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508001) （2018YFC1508001）
浙江省自然科学基金项目(LZJWY22D010002) （LZJWY22D010002）
河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室"一带一路"水与可持续发展科技基金项目(2022490911) （2022490911）
