人民长江2024，Vol.55Issue(5)：136-142,7.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.05.018
基于非线性回归的暴雨泥石流堵河预测
River blockage prediction of rainfall-induced debris flow based on nonlinear regression
摘要
Abstract
River blockage resulting from debris flow disasters is common in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area,posing significant cascading effects that imperil the safety of life and property in the region.Therefore,accurately predicting the extent of river blockage induced by debris flows and implementing corresponding preventive measures are imperative.This study focused on the group debris flows that occurred in Qingping Town,Mianzhu City,Sichuan Province,on August 13,2010.Through the analysis of factor weights,we developed a prediction model for assessing the extent of river blockage induced by debris flows utilizing non-linear regression technique and we compared its performances with existing models.Upon demonstrating the efficacy of the new model,the extent of river blockage under different rainfall frequencies was predicated.The findings revealed that the flow ratio and catchment area were optimal predictive factors,and the absolute mean error of the established model was 0.049.Compared with other models,it was found that the established model had good applicability in predicating debris flow blockage in Qingping Town.Additionally,the predicted extent of river blockage reached 1 in some gullies under extreme rainfall conditions,it would definitely block the Mianyuan River.These findings can provide valuable insights for the prevention and mitigation of debris flow disasters in the region.关键词
暴雨泥石流/堵河/非线性回归/预测模型/汶川震区Key words
rainfall-induced debris flow/river blockage/nonlinear regression/prediction model/Wenchuan earthquake area分类
地质学引用本文复制引用
刘人文,周伟,周亚萍,任文铭,聂浩文..基于非线性回归的暴雨泥石流堵河预测[J].人民长江,2024,55(5):136-142,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金区域创新发展联合基金项目(U23A2044) （U23A2044）
地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室自主课题(SKLGP2019Z015) （SKLGP2019Z015）
