全球能源互联网2024，Vol.7Issue(3)：292-302,11.DOI:10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2024.03.006
基于实测数据因果推断的燃煤机组低碳经济运行评估决策
Assessment and Decision Making for the Low Carbon Economic Operation of Coal-fired Units Based on Measured-data-driven Causal Inference
摘要
Abstract
As the first industry to participate in the national carbon market,thermal power companies need to fulfill their compliance obligations according to market rules.The power supply carbon emission intensity and power supply of these companies jointly influence their compliance requirements in the carbon market.With the development of the new type power systems,coal-fired units will take on more system regulation responsibilities,and their power supply carbon emission intensity will be increasingly affected by their operational conditions.In light of the current situation of thermal power companies,this paper proposes a low carbon economic operation assessment and decision making for coal-fired units based on measured-data-driven causal inference method.By depicting the causal graph among variables using prior knowledge,a generalized propensity score matching model is constructed to assess the impact functions of power supply on carbon emission intensity and coal consumption of power supply.This assists in decision making for low carbon operation of coal-fired units.The case study results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method,providing an efficient and convenient approach for the assessment and decision making of low carbon economic operation of coal-fired units.关键词
燃煤机组/因果推断/广义倾向得分匹配/碳排放/发电成本Key words
coal-fired unit/causal inference/generalized propensity score matching/carbon emission/power generation cost分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
房庆熙,李红霞,黄杰,金竞琦,赖业宁,马雪..基于实测数据因果推断的燃煤机组低碳经济运行评估决策[J].全球能源互联网,2024,7(3):292-302,11.基金项目
国家电网有限公司科技项目(5100-202134560A-0-5-SF).Science and Technology Foundation of SGCC(5100-202134560A-0-5-SF). （5100-202134560A-0-5-SF）
