北京大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.60Issue(3)：431-441,11.DOI:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2024.029
1981-2020年中国风速变化及其与大气环流的关系
Changes in Wind Speed in China from 1981 to 2020 and Its Relationship with Atmospheric Circulation
摘要
Abstract
Based on the methods of piecewise regression model,Theil-Sen slope estimator,Mann-Kendall trend test,and stepwise regression model,this study explores the changes in near surface wind speed in China from 1981 to 2020 and its relationship with circulation patterns.The results indicate that overall,the wind speeds from 1981 to 2020 showed decreasing trends,with the decreasing trends of westerly,easterly,southerly,and northerly winds being-0.08,-0.06,-0.14 and-0.14(m·s-1)/10a,respectively.Using a segmented linear regression model to explore the inflection point of wind speed,the wind speed showed downwards trend before the inflection point and upward trends after the inflection point,and the average increase amplitude of southerly and northerly winds is higher than that of westerly and easterly winds.There are differences in wind speed changes in different regions and directions.The average south and north winds in northern China(Northwest,North,and Northeast China)changed from decreasing to increasing near 2012,while the average wind speeds in the four directions in southern China(South China)changed from decreasing to increasing near 1990.There is a strong correlation between the atmospheric circulation indices and the near surface wind speed in China.Among the inter-annual indices,the Asian Polar Vortex Intensity Index retains the highest frequency in the stepwise regression model,which is positively correlated with wind speed and has a higher impact on the northern sites of China than the central and southern sites.Among the interdecadal indices,the Pacific Decadal Oscillation retains the highest frequency in the stepwise regression model and is negatively correlated with wind speed.Its impact on wind speed at stations in southern China is significantly lower than that in the north and central regions.关键词
近地面风速/大气环流指数/中国区域Key words
near surface wind/atmospheric circulation indices/China area引用本文复制引用
朱国营,赵昕奕..1981-2020年中国风速变化及其与大气环流的关系[J].北京大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,60(3):431-441,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42230506)资助 （42230506）
