北京大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.60Issue(3)：513-520,8.DOI:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2024.022
滑坡位移预测模型补充评价方法
Supplemental Evaluation of Landslide Displacement Prediction Models
摘要
Abstract
The distinguishing ability of typical overall indicators is becoming increasingly insufficient in the evaluation tasks of landslide displacement prediction models while the predicting ability of the models in the high-risk deformation periods has unexpectedly not been paid enough attention.Therefore,two supplemental evaluation indicators for landslide displacement prediction models,combined error of rapid displacement period(CERDP)and peak prediction error(PPE),along with their application process,are accordingly designed.To verify the feasibility and performance of the proposed supplemental evaluation indicators,a case study based on actual landslide monitoring data has been carried out.It can be concluded that the proposed supplemental evaluation indicators and application process are reasonable,feasible,and practical for effectively addressing the evaluation issues caused by insignificant differences in indicators,such as root mean squared error(RMSE),and are able to finally select an overall reliable model which performs best during rapid displacement periods and around peak deformation times,thus providing effective technical support for landslide risk management tasks.关键词
滑坡位移预测模型/评价指标/补充评价/快速位移期/位移峰值Key words
landslide displacement prediction model/evaluation indicators/supplemental evaluation/rapid dis-placement period/peak displacement引用本文复制引用
田原,常啸寅,赵文祎,程楚云,Bronte Scheuer,邓杨兰朵,马睿平,张建学..滑坡位移预测模型补充评价方法[J].北京大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,60(3):513-520,8.基金项目
中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20211364)资助 （DD20211364）
