电力系统自动化2024，Vol.48Issue(11)：134-142,9.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20230804004
基于藤Copula理论的海上风电建模及电力市场运行分析
Modeling of Offshore Wind Power Based on Vine Copula Theory and Electricity Market Operation Analysis
摘要
Abstract
Offshore wind power will become an important technological option for China to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality due to its more utilization hours for electric power generation.However,with the continuous increase in the offshore wind power installed capacity,its intermittency and fluctuation will have a significant impact on the security and stability of power systems,as well as the economic operation of electricity markets.To characterize the correlation between wind speeds at different station sites,the vine copula theory is used for offshore wind power modeling and a joint distribution model is constructed for multiple wind farms by using the C-vine copula function.On this basis,a method is proposed for constructing the typical congestion scenarios in the electricity market based on the consensus clustering.Numerical simulation calculations are conducted with the simplified power grid architecture data of Guangdong province,China to empirically analyze the changes in key indicators such as generation structure of the power system,carbon emissions,and market electricity prices before and after the large-scale grid-integration of offshore wind power.关键词
海上风电/不确定性/电力现货市场/节点边际电价Key words
offshore wind power/uncertainty/electricity spot market/locational marginal price引用本文复制引用
张帅龙,郑可迪,刘学,程兰芬,唐翀,陈启鑫..基于藤Copula理论的海上风电建模及电力市场运行分析[J].电力系统自动化,2024,48(11):134-142,9.基金项目
广东省重点领域研发计划资助项目(2021B0101230004). This work is supported by Key Areas R&D Program of Guangdong Province(No.2021B0101230004). （2021B0101230004）
