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Future changes in compound drought events and associated population and GDP exposure in China based on CMIP6

Rufan Xue Bo Sun Wanling Li Huixin Li Botao Zhou

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2024，Vol.17Issue(3)：25-31,7.
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大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2024，Vol.17Issue(3)：25-31,7.DOI:10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100461

Future changes in compound drought events and associated population and GDP exposure in China based on CMIP6

Future changes in compound drought events and associated population and GDP exposure in China based on CMIP6

Rufan Xue 1Bo Sun 2Wanling Li 1Huixin Li 1Botao Zhou1

作者信息

  • 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters,Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China
  • 2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters,Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China||Southem Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory,Zhuhai,China||Nansen Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China
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摘要

Abstract

相较于一种类型的干旱,几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重.本研究采用CMIP6资料,研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化.结果表明,西北北部,西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次,持续时间和严重程度增加,而华北和东北地区则减少.复合型干旱事件的人口暴露度在长江流域南部大幅增加,在长江流域以北的东部大幅减少,其中气候和人口均对人口暴露度的变化有重要影响.由于GDP的快速增长,中国未来几乎所有地区复合型干旱事件的GDP暴露度增加,特别是在中国东部,GDP效应对GDP暴露度变化的相对贡献最大.

关键词

复合型干旱事件/国际耦合模式比较计划/人口暴露度/GDP暴露度/相对贡献

Key words

Compound drought events/CMIP6/Population exposure/GDP exposure/Relative contribution

引用本文复制引用

Rufan Xue,Bo Sun,Wanling Li,Huixin Li,Botao Zhou..Future changes in compound drought events and associated population and GDP exposure in China based on CMIP6[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2024,17(3):25-31,7.

基金项目

This study was supported by the National Key Research and Devel-opment Program of China[grant number 2022YFF0801704]. （）

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