社会网络环境下考虑专家共识水平的群体FMEA方法研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

In response to the problems of incomplete expert information and significant differences in evalua-tion results between experts and groups in the failure mode and effects analysis(FMEA)method evalua-tion,this paper proposes a group FMEA method considering expert consensus level in the social network environment.Firstly,in the social network environment,a binary trust/distrust matrix was used to describe the trust/distrust issues among some experts.Due to the possibility of mutual lack of understanding among experts,there may be unknown relationships among experts in addition to trust/distrust relationships.Therefore,based on the binary matrix,a propagation operator was used to complete the trust/distrust and unknown relationships among experts,and a ternary trust/distrust matrix was established.The weights of each individual expert were obtained through the mutual trust between experts;then,through combining the similarity aggregation method(SAM),the relative consistency between expert evaluation results and group expert decision-making results was calculated,and through integrating expert weights and relative consistency indicators,the comprehensive weights of each expert were obtained.Finally,taking the four stage indicators of urban emergency management capacity in the context of disasters as an example,the key factors affecting urban emergency management capacities were identified by calculating the risk priority number(RPN)of the 14 indicators in these four stages,verifying the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.