高师理科学刊2024，Vol.44Issue(5)：22-27,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-9831.2024.05.005
基于ARIMAX模型的中国税收收入预测与分析
Prediction and analysis of tax revenue based on ARIMAX Model
摘要
Abstract
Based on the tax revenue,gross domestic product,and fiscal expenditure data of China from 1978 to 2019,an ARIMA model was established for tax revenue using R software.The ARIMAX model was also established for tax revenue with gross domestic product and fiscal expenditure as covariates.The two models were used to predict tax revenue from 2020 to 2022,and the predicted values were compared with the true values to calculate the relative error and average absolute percentage error.It was found that compared with the ARIMA model,the ARIMAX model has smaller errors,higher accuracy,and more accurate predictions.Therefore,the ARIMAX model is used to obtain the predicted values of tax revenue from 2023 to 2025.关键词
ARIMAX模型/税收收入/国内生产总值/财政支出/预测Key words
ARIMAX model/tax revenue/gross domestic product/finance expenditure/forecast分类
数理科学引用本文复制引用
赵盼盼,张迷,焦力宾..基于ARIMAX模型的中国税收收入预测与分析[J].高师理科学刊,2024,44(5):22-27,6.基金项目
营口理工学院校级科研项目(QNL202025) （QNL202025）
