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基于级联失效的船舶碰撞事故关键致因链识别

朱怀伟 刘建舟 柴田

集美大学学报(自然科学版)2024,Vol.29Issue(2):126-133,8.
集美大学学报(自然科学版)2024,Vol.29Issue(2):126-133,8.DOI:10.19715/j.jmuzr.2024.02.04

基于级联失效的船舶碰撞事故关键致因链识别

Identification of Key Causal Chains of Ship Collisions Based on Cascade Failure

朱怀伟 1刘建舟 1柴田1

作者信息

  • 1. 集美大学航海学院,福建厦门 361021
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

In order to reveal the evolution pattern of ship collision causes and effectively prevent ship col-lision accidents,this paper proposed a key causal chain identification method based on the cascade failure the-ory.Firstly,the causal factors of ship collision are abstracted into a network model.Secondly,the causal chain identification method based on the cascade failure theory is designed.Finally,100 ship collision accidents are used to analyze this method in a case study.The results of the case study show that this method can effectively identify the key causal chains of ship accidents.It can provide some theoretical basis and decision support for ship demand priority management.

关键词

船舶碰撞事故/致因链/级联失效/复杂网络

Key words

ship collision/causal chain/cascade failure/complex network

分类

交通工程

引用本文复制引用

朱怀伟,刘建舟,柴田..基于级联失效的船舶碰撞事故关键致因链识别[J].集美大学学报(自然科学版),2024,29(2):126-133,8.

基金项目

福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JAT200239) (JAT200239)

集美大学学报(自然科学版)

1007-7405

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