科技创新与应用2024，Vol.14Issue(16)：12-15,4.DOI:10.19981/j.CN23-1581/G3.2024.16.003
"双碳""双区"背景下电力需求预测方法研究实践
马燕如 1王宝 2贾健雄 2杨敏 2叶钰童2
作者信息
- 1. 合肥工业大学,合肥 230071||国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,合肥 230002
- 2. 国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,合肥 230002
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In order to comprehensively and accurately analyze the characteristics of urban future power consumption in the context of development in the new era,it is necessary to combine the new situation and new characteristics,consider a variety of new elements,and optimize and adjust on the basis of the previous methods and methods,so as to establish a new electrical power demand prediction system suitable for the development goal of double carbon and double zones.This paper first analyzes the influence of double carbon and double zones on urban electrical power demand prediction,and puts forward three methods of electrical power demand prediction:the proportion of electric energy to terminal energy under the constraint of carbon intensity,the subdivided industry method,and the new load correction method.This paper makes a comprehensive forecast and analysis of social electricity consumption,proposes to understand the specific characteristics of urban medium-and long-term electrical power demand,and grasp the trend of total electricity consumption,power consumption structure,maximum load and load characteristics.This provides a reference for the top-level design of urban development planning,controlling power load and improving the efficiency of power investment.关键词
双碳/双区/电力需求预测/用电特征/最高负荷Key words
double carbon/double zone/electrical power demand prediction/power consumption characteristics/maximum load分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马燕如,王宝,贾健雄,杨敏,叶钰童.."双碳""双区"背景下电力需求预测方法研究实践[J].科技创新与应用,2024,14(16):12-15,4.
